Preseason Rankings
UNC Wilmington
Colonial Athletic
2018-19
Overall
Predictive Rating-2.0#197
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace76.9#30
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+0.5#150
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-2.5#264
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 4.4% 5.7% 3.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Average Seed 14.1 13.9 14.5
.500 or above 42.9% 56.1% 29.0%
.500 or above in Conference 48.6% 56.7% 39.9%
Conference Champion 4.5% 5.9% 3.0%
Last Place in Conference 10.8% 7.7% 14.1%
First Four0.7% 0.5% 0.8%
First Round4.1% 5.5% 2.5%
Second Round0.5% 0.6% 0.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Campbell (Away) - 51.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0.0 - 1.50.0 - 1.5
Quad 1b0.2 - 1.30.2 - 2.8
Quad 20.9 - 3.41.1 - 6.2
Quad 33.8 - 6.04.9 - 12.2
Quad 48.7 - 4.213.6 - 16.4


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2018 254   @ Campbell W 79-76 51%    
  Nov 09, 2018 108   Stanford L 76-82 39%    
  Nov 13, 2018 86   UNC Greensboro L 68-76 33%    
  Nov 23, 2018 286   Arkansas St. W 83-78 67%    
  Nov 24, 2018 218   Gardner-Webb W 77-76 55%    
  Nov 25, 2018 298   Eastern Illinois W 75-69 69%    
  Nov 27, 2018 290   East Carolina W 80-75 76%    
  Dec 01, 2018 88   Davidson L 71-78 35%    
  Dec 05, 2018 6   @ North Carolina L 74-94 2%    
  Dec 15, 2018 123   @ Furman L 75-80 24%    
  Dec 19, 2018 85   @ Georgia St. L 72-80 17%    
  Dec 21, 2018 272   @ Mercer W 75-71 52%    
  Dec 29, 2018 112   College of Charleston L 70-76 42%    
  Jan 03, 2019 176   @ James Madison L 76-77 36%    
  Jan 05, 2019 237   @ Towson W 76-74 47%    
  Jan 10, 2019 239   Delaware W 75-73 67%    
  Jan 12, 2019 280   Drexel W 81-77 73%    
  Jan 17, 2019 156   @ Hofstra L 80-83 32%    
  Jan 19, 2019 70   @ Northeastern L 72-82 15%    
  Jan 24, 2019 164   William & Mary L 82-84 53%    
  Jan 26, 2019 231   Elon W 78-76 66%    
  Jan 31, 2019 237   Towson W 76-74 66%    
  Feb 02, 2019 176   James Madison L 76-77 56%    
  Feb 07, 2019 280   @ Drexel W 81-77 54%    
  Feb 09, 2019 239   @ Delaware W 75-73 47%    
  Feb 14, 2019 70   Northeastern L 72-82 29%    
  Feb 16, 2019 156   Hofstra L 80-83 51%    
  Feb 21, 2019 231   @ Elon W 78-76 46%    
  Feb 23, 2019 164   @ William & Mary L 82-84 35%    
  Mar 02, 2019 112   @ College of Charleston L 70-76 24%    
Projected Record 13.6 - 16.4 8.4 - 9.6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 0.7 1.2 1.2 0.7 0.3 0.1 4.5 1st
2nd 0.2 1.0 2.5 2.6 1.6 0.6 0.0 8.6 2nd
3rd 0.3 1.7 4.5 3.1 1.3 0.2 0.0 11.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 2.7 5.2 3.2 0.9 0.0 12.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 3.1 5.1 3.1 0.7 0.0 12.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.6 3.4 5.4 3.0 0.3 0.0 12.7 6th
7th 0.1 0.7 3.2 4.6 2.5 0.4 0.0 11.5 7th
8th 0.1 1.0 3.2 4.3 1.8 0.3 10.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 1.3 3.2 3.4 1.3 0.2 0.0 9.8 9th
10th 0.1 0.6 1.5 2.3 1.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 6.5 10th
Total 0.1 0.6 1.8 3.8 5.7 7.8 9.5 10.4 11.7 11.3 10.4 9.3 6.9 4.6 3.0 1.8 0.7 0.3 0.1 Total



Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-1 100.0% 0.3    0.3 0.0
16-2 95.4% 0.7    0.6 0.1
15-3 67.8% 1.2    0.8 0.4 0.0
14-4 40.7% 1.2    0.6 0.5 0.1 0.0
13-5 15.5% 0.7    0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0
12-6 4.4% 0.3    0.1 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 4.5% 4.5 2.6 1.4 0.5 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.1% 95.8% 71.7% 24.2% 9.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 85.3%
17-1 0.3% 70.0% 55.8% 14.2% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 32.1%
16-2 0.7% 33.2% 30.4% 2.8% 12.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 4.0%
15-3 1.8% 31.6% 30.6% 0.9% 12.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 1.2 1.4%
14-4 3.0% 13.8% 13.7% 0.1% 13.5 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 2.6 0.1%
13-5 4.6% 10.9% 10.9% 14.2 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 4.1
12-6 6.9% 9.3% 9.3% 0.0% 14.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 6.3 0.0%
11-7 9.3% 5.7% 5.7% 14.8 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.1 8.8
10-8 10.4% 4.4% 4.4% 15.3 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 10.0
9-9 11.3% 2.4% 2.4% 15.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 11.1
8-10 11.7% 1.9% 1.9% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.2 11.5
7-11 10.4% 1.3% 1.3% 15.9 0.0 0.1 10.3
6-12 9.5% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.1 9.4
5-13 7.8% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 7.8
4-14 5.7% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 5.7
3-15 3.8% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 3.8
2-16 1.8% 1.8
1-17 0.6% 0.6
0-18 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 4.4% 4.3% 0.1% 14.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.0 95.6 0.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 3.0 100.0
Lose Out 0.0%